Chapter 1: Outline Need for Psychological Science Hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence show that we cannot rely on intuition and common sense. Critical thinking must also be employed in order to perceive facts from nonsense. Hind sight Bias The thought that once a person find out the outcome, that the person knew the outcome all along and could have predicted it. Proves that we need psychological research Common sense describes what has happened more easily than predict what will happen Overconfidence Thinking is limited Even when you are 100% sure about something, self prediction may change up to 15% of the time. When prediction becomes wrong, individual?s attempt the ?I was close? excuse Often leads to the overestimation of our potential.