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Expected Consumption

permanent income theory of consumption - aka life cycle theory of consumption  

  • total wealth = human wealth + nonhuman wealth
    • human wealth - after-tax labor income
    • nonhuman wealth - financial wealth (total value of stocks, bonds, checking/savings) + housing wealth (value of house minus mortage still due)
  • Ct = C(total wealtht)
    • would reasonably spend enough each year to keep the consumption level the same throughout life
    • level of consumption higher than income >> borrow the difference
    • level of consumption lower than income >> save the difference

more realistic consumption trends  

  • disportionate consumption throughout life
    • save more expensive activities for later
  • most consumption decisions made for short-term
    • long-term rarely planned out this much in advance
    • consumption decisions more dependent on current income than overall wealth
  • future earnings may be better or worse than expectations
    • consumer hesitant to spend more than current income each year
  • may not be able to borrow enough to reach desired consumption level
  • Ct = C(total wealtht, YLT-Tt)
    • YLT-Tt = current after-tax labor income
    • expectations affect consumption directly through human wealth (calculated by expectations of future labor income, interest rates, taxes)
    • expectations affect consumption indirectly through nonhuman wealth (outside sources directly affect nonhuman wealth by their own expectations of future values)
  • consumption usually responds less than 1 for 1 to changes in current income
    • consumers don't instantly accept recessions/expansions as long-term changes >> would not drastically change their consumption to match economical changes
    • current income doesn't need to change for consumption to change
    • more current consumption >> less the consumer can consume in the future
Subject: 
Economics [1]
Subject X2: 
Economics [1]

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