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Expected Present Discounted Value

nominal vs real interest rates -  

  • nominal interest rates (it) - in terms of currency, how interest is naturally expressed
    • borrow $M this year, pay $M(1+it) next year
  • real interest rates (rt) - in terms of basket of goods
    • borrow M basket of goods, pay M(1+rt) basket of goods next year
  • 1+rt = (1+it) Pt / Pet+1
    • Pt - present cost/price
    • Pet+1 = expected price next year
  • rt ~ it - pet
    • w/o inflation, real interest rate equals nominal interest rate
    • inflation usually positive >> real interest less than nominal interest
    • higher inflation >> lower real interest rate

expected present discounted value - value today of expected future payments  

  • expresses future values in terms of present values
  • $M next year = $M / (1+it) this year
  • $M in 2 years = $M / [(1+it)(1+it+1)] this year
  • discount factor - constant multiplied by future value to get present discounted value
    • discount rate = it
  • $Vt = $zt + $zt+1 / (1+it) + $zt+2 / [(1+it)(1+it+1)] + ...
    • future costs/payments usually estimated by expected values
    • constant interest rates >> it = it+1 >> discount factors equal to 1/(1+i)n
    • constant interest rates and payments
      • $Vt = $z (1-[1/(1+i)n]) / (1-[1/(1+i)])
    • constant interest rates and payments, continuing forever
      • $Vt = $z/i
    • 0 interest rates >> present value equal to sum of expected values
Subject: 
Economics [1]
Subject X2: 
Economics [1]

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