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13822744420Interpret Standard DeviationStandard Deviation measures spread by giving the "typical" or "average" distance that the observations (context) are away from their (context) mean0
13822748429Linear TransformationsAdding "a" to every member of a data set adds "a" to the measures of position, but does not change the measures of spread or the shape. Multiplying every member of a data set by "b" multiplies the measures of position by "b" and multiplies most measures of spread by |b|, but does not change the shape.1
13822752482SOCSShape - Skewed Left (Mean < Median) Skewed Right (Mean > Median) Fairly Symmetric (MeanMedian) Outliers - Discuss them if there are obvious ones Center- Mean or Median Spread- Range, IQR, or Standard Deviation Note: Also be on the lookout for gaps, clusters or other unusual features of the data set. Make Observations!2
13822775428Interpret a z-scorez = (value - mean) / standard deviation A z-score describes how many standard deviations a value falls away from the mean of the distribution and in what direction. The further the z-score is away from zero the more "surprising" the value of the statistic is.3
13822791413Interpret LSRL Slope "b"For every one unit change in the x variable (context) the y variable (context) is predicted to increase/decrease by ____ units (context).4
13822805485Outlier RuleUpper Bound = Q3 + 1.5(IQR) Lower Bound = Q1 - 1.5(IQR) IQR = Q3 - Q15
13822814672Describe the Distribution OR Compare the DistributionsSOCS! Shape, Outliers, Center, Spread Only discuss outliers if there are obviously outliers present. Be sure to address SCS in context! If it says "Compare" YOU MUST USE comparison phrases like "is greater than" or "is less than" for Center & Spread6
13822822878Using Normalcdf and Invnorm (Calculator Tips)Normalcdf (min, max, mean, standard deviation) Invnorm (area to the left as a decimal, mean, standard deviation)7
13822828404What is an outlier?When given 1 variable data: An outlier is any value that falls more than 1.5(IQR) above Q3 or below Q1 Regression Outlier: Any value that falls outside the pattern of the rest of the data.8
13822843577Interpret LSRL y-intercept "a"When the x variable (context) is zero, the y variable (context) is estimated to be put value here.9
13822850164Interpret r-squared__% of the variation in y (context) is accounted for by the LSRL of y (context) on x (context) OR ___% of the variation in y (context) is accounted for by using the linear aggression model with x (context) as the explanatory variable.10
13822850165Interpret rCorrelation measures the strength and direction of the linear relationship between x and y. r is always between -1 and 1. Close to zero = very weak, Close to 1 or -1 = stronger Exactly 1 or -1 = perfectly straight line Positive r = positive correlation Negative r = negative correlation11
13822857233Interpret LSRL "SEb"SEb measures the standard deviation of the estimated slope for predicting the y variable (context) from the x variable (context). SEb measures how far the estimated slope will be from the true slope, on average.12
13822860277Interpret LSRL "s"s = ___ is the standard deviation of the residuals. It measures the typical distance between the actual y-values (context) and their predicted y-values (context)13
13822862635Interpret LSRL "y-hat"y-hat is the "estimated" or "predicted" y-value (context) for a given x-value (context)14
13822876803Interpreting a Residual Plot1. Is there a curved pattern? If so, a linear model may not be appropriate. 2. Are the residuals small in size? If so, predictions using the linear model will be fairly precise. 3. Is there increasing (or decreasing) spread? If so, predictions for larger (smaller) values of x will be more variable.15
13822882496What is a residual?Residual = y - y-hat A residual measures the difference between the actual (observed) y-value in a scatterplot and the y-value that is predicted by the LSRL using its corresponding x value.16
13822884849Sampling Techniques1. SRS- Number the entire population, draw numbers from a hat (every set of n individuals has equal chance of selection) 2. Stratified - Split the population into homogeneous groups, select an SRS from each group. 3. Cluster - Split the population into heterogeneous groups called clusters, and randomly select whole clusters for the sample. Ex. Choosing a carton of eggs actually chooses a cluster (group) of 12 eggs. 4. Census - An attempt to reach the entire population 5. Convenience- Selects individuals easiest to reach 6. Voluntary Response - People choose themselves by responding to a general appeal.17
13822911612Experimental Designs1. CRD (Completely Randomized Design) - All experimental units are allocated at random among all treatments 2. RBD (Randomized Block Design) - Experimental units are put into homogeneous blocks. The random assignment of the units to the treatments is carried out separately within each block. 3. Matched Pairs - A form of blocking in which each subject receives both treatments in a random order or the subjects are matched in pairs as closely as possible and one subject in each pair receives each treatment, determined at random.18
13822921422Goal of Blocking Benefit of BlockingThe goal of blocking is to create groups of homogeneous experimental units. The benefit of blocking is the reduction of the effect of variation within the experimental units. (context)19
13822964144Advantage of using a Stratified Random Sample Over an SRSStratified random sampling guarantees that each of the strata will be represented. When strata are chosen properly, a stratified random sample will produce better (less variable/more precise) information than an SRS of the same size.20
13822978549Experiment or Observational Study?A study is an experiment ONLY if researchers IMPOSE a treatment upon the experimental units. In an observational study researchers make no attempt to influence the results.21
13822981337Does A cause B?Association is NOT Causation! An observed association, no matter how strong, is not evidence of causation. Only a well-designed, controlled experiment can lead to conclusions of cause and effect.22
13822990258SRSA simple random sample of sample size is a sample in which each set of elements in the population has an equal chance of selection.23
13824507267P (at least one)1-P(none)24
13824511433complementary eventsTwo or more mutually exclusive events that together cover all possible outcomes. The sum of the probabilities of complementary events is 1. Ex: Rain/Not Rain, Draw at least one heart I Draw NO hearts25
13824522167Why use a control group?A control group gives the researchers a comparison group to be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the treatment(s). (context) (gauge the effect of the treatment compared to no treatment at all)26
13824538785Two Events are Independent If...P(B) = P(B|A) Or P(B) = P(B|Ac) Meaning: Knowing that Event A has occurred (or not occurred) doesn't change the probability that event B occurs.27
13824545473Interpreting ProbabilityThe probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. Probability is a long-term relative frequency.28
13824551079Interpreting Expected Value/MeanThe mean/expected value of a random variable is the long-run average outcome of a random phenomenon carried out a very large number of times.29
13824579586Mean and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable (On formula page)Mean (Expected Value): Multiply & add across the table Standard Deviation: Square root of the sum of (Each x value - the mean)^2*(its probability)30
13824605252Mean and Standard Deviation of a Difference of Two Random Variables31
13824626124Mean and Standard Deviation of a Sum of Two Random Variables32
13824635155Binomial Distribution (Conditions)1. Binary? Trials can be classified as success/failure 2. Independent? Trials must be independent. 3. Number? The number of trials (n) must be fixed in advance 4. Success? The probability of success (p) must be the same for each trial.33
13824639842Geometric Distribution (Conditions)1. Binary? Trials can be classified as success/failure 2. Independent? Trials must be independent. 3. Trials? The goal is to count the number of trials until the first success occurs 4. Success? The probability of success (p) must be the same for each trial.34
13824643409Binomial Distribution (Calculator Usage)Exactly 5: P(X = 5) = Binompdf(n, p, 5) At Most 5: P(X 5) = Binomcdf(n, p, 5) Less Than 5: P(X < 5) = Binomcdf(n, p, 4) At Least 5: P(X 5) = 1-Binomcdf(n, p, 4) More Than 5: P(X> 5) =1-Binomcdf(n, p, 5) Remember to define X, n, and p!35
13824771151Mean and Standard Deviation Of a Binomial Random Variable36
13824784273Why Large Samples Give More Trustworthy Results... (When collected appropriately)When collected appropriately, large samples yield more precise results than small samples because in a large sample the values of the sample statistic tend to be closer to the true population parameter.37
13824790962The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean (Central Limit Theorem)1. If the population distribution is Normal the sampling distribution will also be Normal with the same mean as the population. Additionally, as n increases the sampling distribution's standard deviation will decrease 2. If the population distribution is not Normal the sampling distribution will become more and more Normal as n increases. The sampling distribution will have the same mean as the population and as n increases the sampling distribution's standard deviation will decrease.38
13824795670unbiased estimatorThe data is collected in such a way that there is no systematic tendency to overestimate or underestimate the true value of the population parameter. (The mean of the sampling distribution equals the true value of the parameter being estimated)39
13824799130BiasThe systematic favoring of certain outcomes due to flawed sample selection, poor question wording, undercoverage, nonresponse, etc. Bias deals with the center of a sampling distribution being "off'!40
13824805246Explain/Interpret a P-valueAssuming that the null is true (context) the P-value measures the chance of observing a statistic (or difference in statistics) (context) as large as or larger than the one actually observed.41
13824813065Can we generalize the results to the population of interest?Yes, if: A large random sample was taken from the same population we hope to draw conclusions about.42
13824818475Finding the Sample Size (For a given margin of error)43
13824825565Carrying out a Two-Sided Test from a Confidence Interval44
138248325024-Step Process Confidence IntervalsSTATE(P): What parameter do you want to estimate, and at what confidence level? PLAN(AN): Choose the appropriate inference method. Check conditions. DO(I): If the conditions are met, perform calculations. CONCLUDE(C): Interpret your interval in the context of the problem.45
138248455854-Step Process Significance TestsSTATE (P/H): What hypotheses do you want to test, and what what significance level? Define any parameters you use. PLAN (A/N): Choose the appropriate inference method. Check conditions. DO (T/O): If the conditions are met, perform calculations. Compute the test statistic and find the P-value. CONCLUDE (M/S): Make a decision about the hypotheses in the context of the problem.46
13824863455Interpreting a Confidence Interval (Not a Confidence Level)47
13824867557Interpreting a Confidence Level (The Meaning of 95% Confident)48
13824876279Paired t-test Phrasing Hints, Ho and Ha, Conclusion49
13824884211Two Sample t-test Phrasing Hints, Ho and Ha, Conclusion50
13824891609Type I Error, Type II Error, & Power1. Type I Error: Rejected H₀ when H₀ is actually true. (ex. Convicting an innocent person) 2. Type II error: Failing to (II) reject H₀ when H₀ should be rejected. (Ex. Letting a guilty person go free) 3. Power: Probability of rejecting H₀ when H₀ should be rejected. (Rejecting Correctly)51
13824897134Factors that Affect Power1. Sample Size: To increase power, increase sample size. 2. Increase α: A 5% test of significance will have a greater chance of rejecting the null than a 1% test. 3. Consider an alternative that is farther away from μ0: Values of μ that are in Ha, but lie close to the hypothesized value are harder to detect than values of μ that are far from μ0.52
13824906238Inference for Means (Conditions)Random: Data from a random sample(s) or randomized experiment Normal: Population distribution is normal or large sample(s) (n1 ≥ 30 or n1 ≥ 30 and n2 ≥ 30) Independent: Independent observations and independent samples/groups; 10% condition if sampling without replacement53
13824918971Inference for Proportions (Conditions)Random: Data from a random sample(s) or randomized experiment Normal: At least 10 successes and failures (in both groups, for a two sample problem) Independent: Independent observations and independent samples/groups; 10% condition if sampling without replacement54
13824921733Types of Chi-Square Tests1. Goodness of Fit: Use to test the distribution of one group or sample as compared to a hypothesized distribution. 2. Homogeneity: Use when you you have a sample from 2 or more independent populations or 2 or more groups in an experiment. Each individual must be classified based upon a single categorical variable. 3. Association/Independence: Use when you have a single sample from a single population. Individuals in the sample are classified by two categorical variables.55
13824929594Chi-Square Tests df and Expected Counts56
13824932611Inference for Counts (Chi-Squared Tests) (Conditions)57
13824936968Inference for Regression (Conditions)Linear: True relationship between the variables is linear. Independent observations, 10% condition if sampling without replacement Normal: Responses vary normally around the regression line for all x-values Equal Variance around the regression line for all x-values Random: Data from a random sample or randomized experiment58

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