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Randomness

David G. Meyers Psychology 8th Edition Chapter 1 outline

Subject: 
Psychology
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Science
Information
Statistics
Design of experiments
scientific method
Covariance and correlation
Behavioural sciences
Evaluation methods
Psychology
Illusory correlation
Randomness
Correlation does not imply causation
health

The Need for Psychological Science Hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence show that we cannot rely on intuition and common sense. Hindsight Bias: The thought that once a person finds out the outcome, that the person knew the outcome all along and could have predicted it. Overconfidence: Thinking is limited not only because of our after-the-fact common sense but by over confidence When you are 100% sure about something, self prediction may change up to 15% of the time When someone predicts wrong, they seem to use the ? I was close? excuse Skepticism and humility must be added to help us tell the difference between life and reality The Scientific Attitude You need to be Skeptical but not cynical Need to be able to have humility and be able to reject ones owns ideas
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